GfK: specialist trade benefits from stable consumer groups

On the day before BioFach opened this year, Wolfgang Adlwarth from the Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK), the consumer research organization in Nuremberg, presented current data on the organic industry. The basic message was that organic is thriving despite the crisis. The trend in 2009 was increasing sales in terms of volume and decreasing prices. Heavy users, in other words conviction buyers whose purchasing behaviour is not affected by a crisis, account for around half of organic consumption. This is why it is not surprising that turnover in the specialist trade has risen slightly, whereas it has declined a little in the case of the conventional retail food trade and discounters. Total turnover in the industry in 2009 is given as 5.8 billion euros, which is slightly lower than the figure for 2008 (5.85 billion euros).
GfK graphic: The share of organic turnover in the total food market in Germany
Since the market data that used to be produced by Professor Ulrich Hamm (University of Kassel) and Markus Rippin (Agromilagro, previously ZMP) are no longer being compiled, an information vacuum has been created in recent months. Nobody has been able to evaluate with precision how organic sales in the various marketing channels, from farm gate sales to the discounters, developed in 2009. There was no overview of which channels had increased or decreased in volume. This situation presented GfK, that has been operating a consumer panel with 30,000 households for many years, with an opportunity to go further with its data evaluation and to publish it at BioFach 2010. It collects data regularly from approximately 0.1 % of all German households, and this information forms the basis for projections encompassing the whole country. These households also provide information on other consumer habits and attitudes.

GfK’s approach differs fundamentally from that of Hamm and Rippin, who surveyed companies for details of their turnover of organic food (excluding non-food) and established totals for the various marketing channels on which to base their projections. GfK’s methodology means working together with consumers who scan their till receipts and also provide information such as the place they did their shopping. This system is more prone to error than the method of Hamm and Rippin. You don’t know how savvy the participating consumers are and whether they can all distinguish between a conventional and an organic supermarket. Nevertheless, the facts and figures compiled by GfK are interesting and are well within the parameters industry insiders would expect.

In charge of the GfK survey was Helmut Hübsch, and it concluded that there was 0.6 % growth in the organic sector in 2009. This figure does, however, include the non-food segment. In particular, natural cosmetics, office articles, washing powder and cleaning materials all grew substantially (6 % - 13 %), whereas organic food decreased by 1 %. According to GfK, natural cosmetics expanded by 6.3 %, environmentally friendly paper (office articles) by 7.2 % and washing powder and cleaning materials by 13 %. (GfK graphic: Total turnover including non-food rose slightly by 0.6 %)

The GfK study found the following share of marketing channels in Germany: the conventional retail trade 57 %; the specialist wholefood trade including organic supermarkets 22 %; artisan food trade (organic bakers and organic butchers) 7 %; direct sales by organic farmers 6 %; others 7 %. The least important marketing channel was the health food store (2 %), and GfK estimates that the health food sector, the artisan food trade, producers and other sales outlets suffered a decline of 4 % - 6 % in 2009, and the conventional food trade stagnated whilst the specialist wholefood trade experienced a 2 % growth in turnover. The specialist trade barometer of Horst Hartmann, based on data from 120 businesses, registers growth of 1 % for 2009. On the basis of data from over 300 stores, the organic turnover barometer compiled by Klaus Braun establishes growth of 3 %. (GfK graphic: The specialist wholefood trade had the highest growth in 2009)

Detailed analysis of the GfK results shows that the discounters and full-range food stores, after a phase of strong growth on the back of new listings, experienced a drop in turnover of around 3 % for the first time. On the other hand, drugstores and delivery service providers leapt forward, with nearly 18 % and 20 % respectively.

2.3 million households from a total of 36.7 million – representing 6 % of the population of Germany – belong to the category of heavy users of organics. They are the backbone of the organic industry and are the reason why it is relatively crisis-proof. They buy about half of all organic products. Average buyers of organics and experimental buyers are 9 % and 30 % of customers respectively. Together these three groups account for 91 % of total turnover. They represent 45 % of the population. It seems that 54 % of Germans are not interested in organic food and occasionally buy an organic product more by chance. These people are responsible for only 9 % of organic turnover, but that’s nevertheless a figure of 522 million euros. (GfK graphic: 6 % of consumer households in Germany belong to the category of heavy users of organic food)

In the opinion of GfK, the fall in turnover in the overall organic food segment is attributable to fewer fresh products being available, as they were de-listed by the conventional trade and discounters during the economic crisis. In contrast, baby food, edible oils and dietary fats, hot drinks and alcoholic drinks recorded good rates of growth. GfK’s statistics show that non-alcoholic drinks have declined by almost 10 %.
Total expenditure on organic food rose from 56 euros per household in 2006 to 84 euros in 2009.


Source: GfK-Haushaltspanel