New plant varieties needed

While in southern Bavaria frost and snow at the end of April caused the fruit blossom to freeze, farmers in other regions in Germany were moaning about drought. And that's just the start – coming down the line is climate change and it's imperative that the food industry adjusts to what is on the way.

The question is how? There's no simple answer. We know the trend is for the weather to get warmer in Germany, explains Hans-Helmut Schmitt, agricultural meteorologist at Germany's Met Office, but the fluctuation from year to year is staying at a high level. This means that alternating extreme weather is on the increase. Farmers are finding it difficult to adjust. For example, the first six months of  2016 were very wet and then from August it was hot and dry: “In 2017 we had the warmest March in living memory, and up to now it's been too dry in most parts of Germany.”

For the farmers, choosing the right seed to use on their  fields is a matter of luck. They're already considering planting several types of plant on the same field in future so that those will survive that the conditions suit in any particular year. At the end of the day there's less to harvest but they don't lose the whole lot.

Also important is the effect climate change has on the characteristics of plants. Schmitt takes the example of wheat: “If the flour is still of baking quality, what is the protein content?” In his opinion, the biggest challenge is the fact that less water will be available in future. He says  it will be more difficult to cope with this problem than with rising temperatures. The weatherman's advice: “We've got to breed plants that need less water but still retain their characteristics.”

That, however, takes time – especially in the organic sector where genetic modification is taboo. Some breeders totally reject plant breeding in the lab. For Sebastian Vornhecke, who breeds vegetables for bio-dynamic cultivation, that's not the way he sees plants: “Because when developing varieties we respect the natural processes and cycles of plants, breeding a new type of cabbage can take from ten to twenty years.”

Bearing in mind the rapid pace of climate change, that's a long time and, as Schmitt warns, time is running out. Especially in the case of fruit trees and grape vines, farmers need plants now that in 20 to 30 years can cope with the climatic conditions and produce a crop. Some won't manage it, and the same applies to vegetables and cereals. Vornhecke's view: “In some regions you'll no longer find particular varieties, but others will presumably take their place.”

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And Germany is in a relatively good situation. The Mediterranean region is already suffering much more. In countries like Spain, Greece and Turkey it has already become considerably drier. Southern Italy hasn't got much water at all and that's a problem for regional products like grapes that need it just as much as they need sun and warmth.

Even if producers in the south of Europe succeed in keeping production going, it will be by irrigating. That's expensive and we'll rapidly see the effect on prices - and it will give rise to ethical issues that the organic sector in particular will have to come to terms with. It will be a similar situation to the discussion around almonds in California that arose because of several years of drought and the large volume of water needed in production. Agriculture in the Mediterranean region is facing the same danger.

What's worse, some products could disappear completely from the market because they belong in the specific regions where they are grown and carry protected designation of origin. An example is Riso Nano Vialone Veronese, abbreviation Vialone, a popular rice for risotto. Cultivation is permitted only in the Po plain in northern Italy and in peak periods 80 percent of the water in the river Po comes from glaciers that, as a consequence of climate change, are retreating. If these glaciers finally disappear there will be a lack of water in the plains that support so much agriculture. That's the warning from the organisation implementing the Alpine Convention whose aim is the sustainable development and the protection of the mountain chain. If the glaciers shrink there will be up to 50 percent less water in summer in the catchment areas that are fed directly by glaciers, and that means there will not be enough water for rice cropping.

Peter Schaumberger, the managing director of GEPA – The Fair Trade Company in Germany - says that statistically the imponderables are are getting more and more all the time. In the long term, that could mean the population in Germany has got to change the way it thinks. He points out that in the west we are used to everything being available all the time, whereas in future, to put it bluntly, we'll only be able to buy coffee when it's there.

Coffee in particular is a commodity where we can already see clearly the impact of climate change.

It's not just a question of water and heat. A further consequence of  global warming is that pests and diseases are spreading to higher and higher altitudes and to regions that have hitherto been too cold for them. “Coffee rust, a fungal disease, is now spreading to plantations that were too high for it to reach,” says Jan Kühn, the spokesperson of  Lebensbaum, the organic pioneer specialising in tea, coffee and spices.  Although the coffee farmers can go to higher locations, there comes a point where withdrawing is no longer an option.

At the organic and wholefood company Rapunzel too they have noticed the increasing presence of pests and diseases. “The farmers on the spot have to react to changes like these and newly occurring situations,” says Barbara Altmann, who is in charge of ensuring supplies of raw materials.

Not only the wholefood and natural cosmetics sectors are affected. Najel,  the French-Syrian manufacturer of Aleppo Soap, reports fly eggs on olives and a reduction in yield of 20 to 30 percent. But, as head of the firm Manar Najjar explains, much more endangered is the laurel  that is needed for production: “The plants are all in one valley and if it's hit by disease or drought the plants will die.”

Many companies in the organic sector are already adapting to climate change and the challenges it brings. “We're relying on partners who produce in various regions and countries in order to reduce the risk if harvests fail,” explains Julia Granobs, who is responsible for press and public relations at the German juice producer Voelkel.

The buzzword is diversification. Just as investors on the stock exchange buy shares in a whole range of companies, now it's important to procure raw materials from a number of different suppliers. The organic industry has an advantage compared with the conventional food industry, says Altmann from Rapunzel: “Soils that are managed organically have a better water retention capacity – and that's a real benefit when it comes to surviving drought.”

Climate change does not stop at the coast. With conditions in the world's oceans changing too, it has a knock-on effect on fishing. The company Followfish sources its tuna in the Maldives. For 900 years the local people have been catching fish with hooks and passing on their knowledge of fishing grounds from one generation to the next, explains Followfish Managing Director Jürg Knoll: “Now there are some years when they have to struggle with the El-Nino phenomenon, when there are fewer fish or they are to be found in other locations.” The fishermen  of the Maldives are not the only ones who live in fear. If the gulf stream comes to a halt, changes course or simply becomes colder, it could be the death knell for the salmon breeding industry in Norway, Ireland and Scotland.

But, surprisingly, not all companies in the organic sector are preparing themselves for the challenges ahead. Some are just carrying on as before, and some don't even acknowledge there is a problem. Others still think they can combat climate change and prevent it happening. Schmitt has a message for people adopting this approach: “I think they are being somewhat unrealistic.”